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Gorée vs Sonacos — Ligue 1 2019

Gorée
Gorée
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sonacos
Sonacos
4/12/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 19Stade Djagaly Bagayoko

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Gorée40%
×Draw36%
Sonacos25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gorée
0.90
Sonacos
0.64

Gorée creates 41% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 56 away

creates per match

Gorée
0.84
Sonacos
0.63

allows per match

Gorée
0.64
Sonacos
0.96

finishing

Gorée+0.00on par
Sonacos+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gorée ↓

Sonacos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–114%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Gorée or draw
75%
Gorée or Sonacos
64%
Draw or Sonacos
60%

Winning margin

Gorée wins by 2+
14%
Sonacos wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gorée 1+ goals
59%
Gorée 2+ goals
23%
Gorée 3+ goals
6%
Sonacos 1+ goals
47%
Sonacos 2+ goals
14%
Sonacos 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Gorée (draw refunded)
62%
Sonacos (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gorée at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.64 · 89 matches

Sonacos away — creates 0.63, concedes 0.96 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gorée attack 0.84 + Sonacos defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.90

Sonacos attack 0.63 + Gorée defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gorée scores more
40%
level
36%
Sonacos scores more
25%

Gorée at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gorée will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Gorée 0–0 Sonacos

Gorée and Sonacos drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Djagaly Bagayoko in Dakar.