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Sonacos vs CNEPS Excellence — Ligue 1 2019

Sonacos
Sonacos
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
CNEPS Excellence
CNEPS Excellence
11/12/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 5Stade Ely Manel Fall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sonacos44%
×Draw33%
CNEPS Excellence23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sonacos
1.07
CNEPS Excellence
0.68

Sonacos creates 57% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 45 away

creates per match

Sonacos
0.66
CNEPS Excellence
0.56

allows per match

Sonacos
0.80
CNEPS Excellence
1.49

finishing

Sonacos+0.00on par
CNEPS Excellence+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonacos ↓

CNEPS Excellence →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Sonacos or draw
77%
Sonacos or CNEPS Excellence
67%
Draw or CNEPS Excellence
56%

Winning margin

Sonacos wins by 2+
18%
CNEPS Excellence wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sonacos 1+ goals
66%
Sonacos 2+ goals
29%
Sonacos 3+ goals
9%
CNEPS Excellence 1+ goals
49%
CNEPS Excellence 2+ goals
15%
CNEPS Excellence 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sonacos (draw refunded)
66%
CNEPS Excellence (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonacos at home — creates 0.66, concedes 0.80 · 56 matches

CNEPS Excellence away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.49 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonacos attack 0.66 + CNEPS Excellence defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.07

CNEPS Excellence attack 0.56 + Sonacos defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sonacos scores more
44%
level
33%
CNEPS Excellence scores more
23%

Sonacos at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sonacos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sonacos vs CNEPS Excellence

Sonacos beat CNEPS Excellence 2-1 in Ligue 1 on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Ely Manel Fall in Diourbel.