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Son Veri vs San Rafael — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Son Veri
Son Veri
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
San Rafael
San Rafael
2/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 22Estadio Son Verí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Son Veri29%
×Draw24%
San Rafael47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Son Veri
1.27
San Rafael
1.67

San Rafael creates 31% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 47 away

creates per match

Son Veri
1.00
San Rafael
0.94

allows per match

Son Veri
2.40
San Rafael
1.53

finishing

Son Veri+0.00on par
San Rafael+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Son Veri ↓

San Rafael →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Son Veri or draw
53%
Son Veri or San Rafael
76%
Draw or San Rafael
71%

Winning margin

Son Veri wins by 2+
12%
San Rafael wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Son Veri 1+ goals
72%
Son Veri 2+ goals
36%
Son Veri 3+ goals
14%
San Rafael 1+ goals
81%
San Rafael 2+ goals
50%
San Rafael 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Son Veri (draw refunded)
38%
San Rafael (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Son Veri at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 20 matches

San Rafael away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Son Veri attack 1.00 + San Rafael defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

San Rafael attack 0.94 + Son Veri defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Son Veri scores more
29%
level
24%
San Rafael scores more
47%

San Rafael at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "San Rafael will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Son Veri 0–2 San Rafael

San Rafael beat Son Veri 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on February 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Son Verí in S'Arenal de Llucmajor.