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Son Veri vs Portmany — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Son Veri
Son Veri
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Portmany
Portmany
10/31/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 11Estadio Son Verí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Son Veri31%
×Draw24%
Portmany45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Son Veri
1.36
Portmany
1.69

Portmany creates 24% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 112 away

creates per match

Son Veri
1.00
Portmany
0.99

allows per match

Son Veri
2.40
Portmany
1.73

finishing

Son Veri+0.00on par
Portmany+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Son Veri ↓

Portmany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Son Veri or draw
55%
Son Veri or Portmany
76%
Draw or Portmany
69%

Winning margin

Son Veri wins by 2+
14%
Portmany wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Son Veri 1+ goals
74%
Son Veri 2+ goals
39%
Son Veri 3+ goals
16%
Portmany 1+ goals
82%
Portmany 2+ goals
50%
Portmany 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Son Veri (draw refunded)
41%
Portmany (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Son Veri at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 20 matches

Portmany away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.73 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Son Veri attack 1.00 + Portmany defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Portmany attack 0.99 + Son Veri defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Son Veri scores more
31%
level
24%
Portmany scores more
45%

Portmany at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Portmany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Son Veri 1–2 Portmany

Portmany beat Son Veri 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Son Verí in S'Arenal de Llucmajor.