Son Veri 1–2 Platges Calvià: Result & Stats

Son Veri

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Platges Calvià

9/11/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 2Estadio Son Verí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Son Veri21%

×Draw23%

Platges Calvià56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Son VeriExpected goals in this matchPlatges Calvià

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.76

Son Veri

0.97

Platges Calvià

1.76

Platges Calvià creates 81% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 112 away

1.00

creates per match

1.13

2.40

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Son Veri

1.00

Platges Calvià

1.13

allows per match

Son Veri

2.40

Platges Calvià

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Son Veri+0.00on par

Platges Calvià+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Son Veri ↓

Platges Calvià →

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Son Veri or draw

44%

Son Veri or Platges Calvià

77%

Draw or Platges Calvià

79%

Winning margin

Son Veri wins by 2+

Platges Calvià wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Son Veri 1+ goals

62%

Son Veri 2+ goals

25%

Son Veri 3+ goals

Platges Calvià 1+ goals

83%

Platges Calvià 2+ goals

52%

Platges Calvià 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Son Veri (draw refunded)

27%

Platges Calvià (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Son Veri at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 20 matches

Platges Calvià away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.94 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Son Veri attack 1.00 + Platges Calvià defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Platges Calvià attack 1.13 + Son Veri defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Son Veri scores more

21%

level

23%

Platges Calvià scores more

56%

Platges Calvià at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Platges Calvià will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff