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Son Veri vs Mercadal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Son Veri
Son Veri
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Mercadal
Mercadal
10/2/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 5Estadio Son Verí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Son Veri29%
×Draw25%
Mercadal46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Son Veri
1.23
Mercadal
1.62

Mercadal creates 32% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 86 away

creates per match

Son Veri
1.00
Mercadal
0.84

allows per match

Son Veri
2.40
Mercadal
1.45

finishing

Son Veri+0.00on par
Mercadal+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Son Veri ↓

Mercadal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Son Veri or draw
54%
Son Veri or Mercadal
75%
Draw or Mercadal
71%

Winning margin

Son Veri wins by 2+
12%
Mercadal wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Son Veri 1+ goals
71%
Son Veri 2+ goals
35%
Son Veri 3+ goals
13%
Mercadal 1+ goals
80%
Mercadal 2+ goals
48%
Mercadal 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Son Veri (draw refunded)
38%
Mercadal (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Son Veri at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 20 matches

Mercadal away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.45 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Son Veri attack 1.00 + Mercadal defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Mercadal attack 0.84 + Son Veri defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Son Veri scores more
29%
level
25%
Mercadal scores more
46%

Mercadal at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mercadal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Son Veri 3–2 Mercadal

Son Veri beat Mercadal 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Son Verí in S'Arenal de Llucmajor.