Son Veri 1–2 Mallorca II: Result & Stats

Son Veri

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Mallorca II

11/27/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 15Estadio Son Verí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Son Veri14%

×Draw19%

Mallorca II67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Son VeriExpected goals in this matchMallorca II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

2.18

Son Veri

0.86

Mallorca II

2.18

Mallorca II creates 153% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 80 away

1.00

creates per match

1.96

2.40

allows per match

0.72

creates per match

Son Veri

1.00

Mallorca II

1.96

allows per match

Son Veri

2.40

Mallorca II

0.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Son Veri+0.00on par

Mallorca II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Son Veri ↓

Mallorca II →

0–05%

0–111%

0–211%

0–38%

0–45%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Son Veri or draw

33%

Son Veri or Mallorca II

81%

Draw or Mallorca II

86%

Winning margin

Son Veri wins by 2+

Mallorca II wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Son Veri 1+ goals

58%

Son Veri 2+ goals

21%

Son Veri 3+ goals

Mallorca II 1+ goals

89%

Mallorca II 2+ goals

64%

Mallorca II 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Son Veri (draw refunded)

17%

Mallorca II (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Son Veri at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 20 matches

Mallorca II away — creates 1.96, concedes 0.72 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Son Veri attack 1.00 + Mallorca II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.86

Mallorca II attack 1.96 + Son Veri defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Son Veri scores more

14%

level

19%

Mallorca II scores more

67%

Mallorca II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Mallorca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff