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Son Cladera vs Santanyí — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Son Cladera
Son Cladera
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Santanyí
Santanyí
11/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 11Campo de futbol Son Cladera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Son Cladera40%
×Draw25%
Santanyí35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Son Cladera
1.53
Santanyí
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 113 away

creates per match

Son Cladera
1.65
Santanyí
1.17

allows per match

Son Cladera
1.65
Santanyí
1.42

finishing

Son Cladera+0.00on par
Santanyí+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Son Cladera ↓

Santanyí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Son Cladera or draw
65%
Son Cladera or Santanyí
75%
Draw or Santanyí
60%

Winning margin

Son Cladera wins by 2+
20%
Santanyí wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Son Cladera 1+ goals
78%
Son Cladera 2+ goals
45%
Son Cladera 3+ goals
20%
Santanyí 1+ goals
76%
Santanyí 2+ goals
41%
Santanyí 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Son Cladera (draw refunded)
54%
Santanyí (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Son Cladera at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Santanyí away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.42 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Son Cladera attack 1.65 + Santanyí defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.53

Santanyí attack 1.17 + Son Cladera defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Son Cladera scores more
40%
level
25%
Santanyí scores more
35%

Son Cladera at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Son Cladera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Son Cladera 2–1 Santanyí

Son Cladera beat Santanyí 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on November 16, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de futbol Son Cladera in Palma de Mallorca.