Son Cladera 1–3 Mercadal: Result & Stats

Son Cladera

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Mercadal

1/17/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 18Campo de futbol Son Cladera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Son Cladera44%

×Draw25%

Mercadal31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Son CladeraExpected goals in this matchMercadal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.24

Son Cladera

1.55

Mercadal

1.24

Son Cladera creates 25% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 86 away

1.65

creates per match

0.84

1.65

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Son Cladera

1.65

Mercadal

0.84

allows per match

Son Cladera

1.65

Mercadal

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Son Cladera+0.00on par

Mercadal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Son Cladera ↓

Mercadal →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Son Cladera or draw

69%

Son Cladera or Mercadal

75%

Draw or Mercadal

56%

Winning margin

Son Cladera wins by 2+

22%

Mercadal wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Son Cladera 1+ goals

79%

Son Cladera 2+ goals

46%

Son Cladera 3+ goals

20%

Mercadal 1+ goals

71%

Mercadal 2+ goals

35%

Mercadal 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Son Cladera (draw refunded)

59%

Mercadal (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Son Cladera at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Mercadal away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.45 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Son Cladera attack 1.65 + Mercadal defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.55

Mercadal attack 0.84 + Son Cladera defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Son Cladera scores more

44%

level

25%

Mercadal scores more

31%

Son Cladera at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Son Cladera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff