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Son Cladera vs Mallorca II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Son Cladera
Son Cladera
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Mallorca II
Mallorca II
10/25/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 8Campo de futbol Son Cladera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Son Cladera25%
×Draw23%
Mallorca II52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Son Cladera
1.19
Mallorca II
1.80

Mallorca II creates 51% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 80 away

creates per match

Son Cladera
1.65
Mallorca II
1.96

allows per match

Son Cladera
1.65
Mallorca II
0.72

finishing

Son Cladera+0.00on par
Mallorca II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Son Cladera ↓

Mallorca II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Son Cladera or draw
48%
Son Cladera or Mallorca II
77%
Draw or Mallorca II
75%

Winning margin

Son Cladera wins by 2+
10%
Mallorca II wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Son Cladera 1+ goals
70%
Son Cladera 2+ goals
33%
Son Cladera 3+ goals
12%
Mallorca II 1+ goals
83%
Mallorca II 2+ goals
54%
Mallorca II 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Son Cladera (draw refunded)
33%
Mallorca II (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Son Cladera at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Mallorca II away — creates 1.96, concedes 0.72 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Son Cladera attack 1.65 + Mallorca II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.19

Mallorca II attack 1.96 + Son Cladera defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Son Cladera scores more
25%
level
23%
Mallorca II scores more
52%

Mallorca II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mallorca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Son Cladera vs Mallorca II

Mallorca II beat Son Cladera 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de futbol Son Cladera in Palma de Mallorca.