Somozas 1–1 Rápido Bouzas: Result & Stats

Somozas

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rápido Bouzas

1/22/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Estadio Alcalde Manuel Candocia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Somozas40%

×Draw27%

Rápido Bouzas33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SomozasExpected goals in this matchRápido Bouzas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.14

Somozas

1.30

Rápido Bouzas

1.14

Somozas creates 14% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 75 away

1.38

creates per match

1.12

1.15

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Somozas

1.38

Rápido Bouzas

1.12

allows per match

Somozas

1.15

Rápido Bouzas

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Somozas+0.00on par

Rápido Bouzas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Somozas ↓

Rápido Bouzas →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Somozas or draw

67%

Somozas or Rápido Bouzas

73%

Draw or Rápido Bouzas

60%

Winning margin

Somozas wins by 2+

18%

Rápido Bouzas wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Somozas 1+ goals

73%

Somozas 2+ goals

37%

Somozas 3+ goals

14%

Rápido Bouzas 1+ goals

68%

Rápido Bouzas 2+ goals

32%

Rápido Bouzas 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Somozas (draw refunded)

55%

Rápido Bouzas (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Somozas at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.15 · 110 matches

Rápido Bouzas away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Somozas attack 1.38 + Rápido Bouzas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.30

Rápido Bouzas attack 1.12 + Somozas defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Somozas scores more

40%

level

27%

Rápido Bouzas scores more

33%

Somozas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Somozas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff