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Somozas vs Estradense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Somozas
Somozas
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Estradense
Estradense
4/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Estadio Alcalde Manuel Candocia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Somozas42%
×Draw26%
Estradense32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Somozas
1.40
Estradense
1.19

Somozas creates 18% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 108 away

creates per match

Somozas
1.38
Estradense
1.23

allows per match

Somozas
1.15
Estradense
1.41

finishing

Somozas+0.00on par
Estradense+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Somozas ↓

Estradense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Somozas or draw
68%
Somozas or Estradense
74%
Draw or Estradense
58%

Winning margin

Somozas wins by 2+
20%
Estradense wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Somozas 1+ goals
75%
Somozas 2+ goals
41%
Somozas 3+ goals
17%
Estradense 1+ goals
70%
Estradense 2+ goals
33%
Estradense 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Somozas (draw refunded)
57%
Estradense (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Somozas at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.15 · 110 matches

Estradense away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.41 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Somozas attack 1.38 + Estradense defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Estradense attack 1.23 + Somozas defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Somozas scores more
42%
level
26%
Estradense scores more
32%

Somozas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Somozas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Somozas vs Estradense

Somozas beat Estradense 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Alcalde Manuel Candocia in As Somozas.