Somerset 0–2 Ulverstone: Result & Stats

Somerset

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Ulverstone

5/24/2025

Tasmania Northern Championship · Round 8Somerset Recreation Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Somerset39%

×Draw19%

Ulverstone43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SomersetExpected goals in this matchUlverstone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.51

2.63

Somerset

2.51

Ulverstone

2.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 20 away

3.07

creates per match

3.40

1.86

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Somerset

3.07

Ulverstone

3.40

allows per match

Somerset

1.86

Ulverstone

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Somerset+0.00on par

Ulverstone+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes85
No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Somerset ↓

Ulverstone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–25%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

75%25%4.5

57%43%

Double chance

Somerset or draw

57%

Somerset or Ulverstone

81%

Draw or Ulverstone

61%

Winning margin

Somerset wins by 2+

22%

Ulverstone wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Somerset 1+ goals

92%

Somerset 2+ goals

71%

Somerset 3+ goals

45%

Ulverstone 1+ goals

93%

Ulverstone 2+ goals

73%

Ulverstone 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Somerset (draw refunded)

48%

Ulverstone (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

81%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Somerset at home — creates 3.07, concedes 1.86 · 28 matches

Ulverstone away — creates 3.40, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Somerset attack 3.07 + Ulverstone defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.51

Ulverstone attack 3.40 + Somerset defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Somerset scores more

39%

level

19%

Ulverstone scores more

43%

Ulverstone at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ulverstone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff