Somerset 3–1 Burnie Utd.: Result & Stats

Somerset

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Burnie Utd.

3/21/2026

Tasmania Northern Championship · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Somerset74%

×Draw13%

Burnie Utd.13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SomersetExpected goals in this matchBurnie Utd.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.87

1.70

Somerset

3.87

Burnie Utd.

1.70

Somerset creates 128% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 30 away

3.07

creates per match

1.53

1.86

allows per match

4.67

creates per match

Somerset

3.07

Burnie Utd.

1.53

allows per match

Somerset

1.86

Burnie Utd.

4.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Somerset+0.00on par

Burnie Utd.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over91
Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Somerset ↓

Burnie Utd. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–13%

1–22%

1–31%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–17%

4–26%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

91%9%3.5

78%22%4.5

62%38%

Double chance

Somerset or draw

87%

Somerset or Burnie Utd.

87%

Draw or Burnie Utd.

26%

Winning margin

Somerset wins by 2+

56%

Burnie Utd. wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Somerset 1+ goals

98%

Somerset 2+ goals

89%

Somerset 3+ goals

71%

Burnie Utd. 1+ goals

82%

Burnie Utd. 2+ goals

51%

Burnie Utd. 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Somerset (draw refunded)

85%

Burnie Utd. (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Somerset at home — creates 3.07, concedes 1.86 · 28 matches

Burnie Utd. away — creates 1.53, concedes 4.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Somerset attack 3.07 + Burnie Utd. defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.87

Burnie Utd. attack 1.53 + Somerset defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Somerset scores more

74%

level

13%

Burnie Utd. scores more

13%

Somerset at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Somerset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff