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Somaspor vs Talasgücü Belediyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Somaspor
Somaspor
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Talasgücü Belediyespor
Talasgücü Belediyespor
11/1/2023Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundSoma Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Somaspor61%
×Draw19%
Talasgücü Belediyespor20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Somaspor
2.50
Talasgücü Belediyespor
1.38

Somaspor creates 81% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Somaspor
2.00
Talasgücü Belediyespor
1.25

allows per match

Somaspor
1.50
Talasgücü Belediyespor
3.00

finishing

Somaspor+0.00on par
Talasgücü Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Somaspor ↓

Talasgücü Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Somaspor or draw
80%
Somaspor or Talasgücü Belediyespor
81%
Draw or Talasgücü Belediyespor
39%

Winning margin

Somaspor wins by 2+
40%
Talasgücü Belediyespor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Somaspor 1+ goals
92%
Somaspor 2+ goals
71%
Somaspor 3+ goals
45%
Talasgücü Belediyespor 1+ goals
75%
Talasgücü Belediyespor 2+ goals
40%
Talasgücü Belediyespor 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Somaspor (draw refunded)
75%
Talasgücü Belediyespor (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Somaspor at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Talasgücü Belediyespor away — creates 1.25, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Somaspor attack 2.00 + Talasgücü Belediyespor defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Talasgücü Belediyespor attack 1.25 + Somaspor defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Somaspor scores more
61%
level
19%
Talasgücü Belediyespor scores more
20%

Somaspor at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Somaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Somaspor vs Talasgücü Belediyespor

Somaspor beat Talasgücü Belediyespor 6-0 in Türkiye Kupası on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at Soma Atatürk Stadyumu in Soma.