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Somaspor vs Çankaya FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Somaspor
Somaspor
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Çankaya FK
Çankaya FK
E. Duman 82'
S. Ilgaz 90' (pen)
O. Pektas 39' (OG)
B. Biyik 17'
9/17/2025Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundSoma Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Somaspor52%
×Draw22%
Çankaya FK26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Somaspor
1.94
Çankaya FK
1.31

Somaspor creates 48% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Somaspor
2.00
Çankaya FK
1.11

allows per match

Somaspor
1.50
Çankaya FK
1.89

finishing

Somaspor+0.00on par
Çankaya FK+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Somaspor ↓

Çankaya FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Somaspor or draw
74%
Somaspor or Çankaya FK
78%
Draw or Çankaya FK
48%

Winning margin

Somaspor wins by 2+
30%
Çankaya FK wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Somaspor 1+ goals
86%
Somaspor 2+ goals
58%
Somaspor 3+ goals
30%
Çankaya FK 1+ goals
73%
Çankaya FK 2+ goals
38%
Çankaya FK 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Somaspor (draw refunded)
67%
Çankaya FK (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Somaspor at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Çankaya FK away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Somaspor attack 2.00 + Çankaya FK defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.94

Çankaya FK attack 1.11 + Somaspor defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Somaspor scores more
52%
level
22%
Çankaya FK scores more
26%

Somaspor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Somaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
B. Biyik
39'
O. PektasOwn goal
82'
E. Duman
90'
S. IlgazPenalty
Somaspor
Çankaya
Özgür Bayer
Manager: Özgür Bayer
Gürkan Aslan
Manager: Gürkan Aslan

Match Recap: Somaspor vs Çankaya FK

Çankaya FK beat Somaspor 3-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 17, 2025.

Goals: B. Biyik (17'), O. Pektas (39' o.g.), E. Duman (82'), S. Ilgaz (90' pen).

The match was played at Soma Atatürk Stadyumu in Soma.