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Solothurn vs Dornach — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Solothurn
Solothurn
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Dornach
Dornach
5/6/20231. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27Stadion FC Solothurn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Solothurn52%
×Draw21%
Dornach27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Solothurn
2.10
Dornach
1.46

Solothurn creates 44% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 15 away

creates per match

Solothurn
1.93
Dornach
1.60

allows per match

Solothurn
1.32
Dornach
2.27

finishing

Solothurn+0.00on par
Dornach+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Solothurn ↓

Dornach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Solothurn or draw
73%
Solothurn or Dornach
79%
Draw or Dornach
48%

Winning margin

Solothurn wins by 2+
31%
Dornach wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Solothurn 1+ goals
88%
Solothurn 2+ goals
62%
Solothurn 3+ goals
35%
Dornach 1+ goals
77%
Dornach 2+ goals
43%
Dornach 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Solothurn (draw refunded)
66%
Dornach (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Solothurn at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.32 · 85 matches

Dornach away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Solothurn attack 1.93 + Dornach defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.10

Dornach attack 1.60 + Solothurn defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Solothurn scores more
52%
level
21%
Dornach scores more
27%

Solothurn at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Solothurn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 2: Solothurn 5–2 Dornach

Solothurn beat Dornach 5-2 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FC Solothurn in Solothurn.