Solomon Islands 2–1 Fiji: Result & Stats

Solomon Islands

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fiji

3/18/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 3Lawson Tama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Solomon Islands38%

×Draw25%

Fiji36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Solomon IslandsExpected goals in this matchFiji

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.38

Solomon Islands

1.42

Fiji

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

1.33

creates per match

1.08

1.67

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Solomon Islands

1.33

Fiji

1.08

allows per match

Solomon Islands

1.67

Fiji

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Solomon Islands+0.00on par

Fiji+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Solomon Islands ↓

Fiji →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Solomon Islands or draw

64%

Solomon Islands or Fiji

75%

Draw or Fiji

62%

Winning margin

Solomon Islands wins by 2+

18%

Fiji wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Solomon Islands 1+ goals

76%

Solomon Islands 2+ goals

41%

Solomon Islands 3+ goals

17%

Fiji 1+ goals

75%

Fiji 2+ goals

40%

Fiji 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Solomon Islands (draw refunded)

51%

Fiji (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Solomon Islands at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Fiji away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Solomon Islands attack 1.33 + Fiji defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Fiji attack 1.08 + Solomon Islands defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Solomon Islands scores more

38%

level

25%

Fiji scores more

36%

Solomon Islands at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Solomon Islands will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff