Sololá 0–0 Comunicaciones: Result & Stats

Sololá

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Comunicaciones

2/19/2022

Liga Nacional · Clausura - 8Estadio Xamba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Sololá34%

×Draw27%

Comunicaciones39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SololáExpected goals in this matchComunicaciones

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.27

Sololá

1.17

Comunicaciones

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 157 away

1.13

creates per match

1.11

1.43

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Sololá

1.13

Comunicaciones

1.11

allows per match

Sololá

1.43

Comunicaciones

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sololá+0.00on par

Comunicaciones+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sololá ↓

Comunicaciones →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sololá or draw

61%

Sololá or Comunicaciones

73%

Draw or Comunicaciones

66%

Winning margin

Sololá wins by 2+

14%

Comunicaciones wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sololá 1+ goals

69%

Sololá 2+ goals

33%

Sololá 3+ goals

11%

Comunicaciones 1+ goals

72%

Comunicaciones 2+ goals

36%

Comunicaciones 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sololá (draw refunded)

47%

Comunicaciones (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sololá at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

Comunicaciones away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sololá attack 1.13 + Comunicaciones defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Comunicaciones attack 1.11 + Sololá defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sololá scores more

34%

level

27%

Comunicaciones scores more

39%

Comunicaciones at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Comunicaciones will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

46'

J. Anangonó← A. Lezcano

56'

R. Saravia← K. Espino

67'

74'

C. Solares← M. Ávila

78'

L. García← B. Castañeda

78'

S. Robles← D. Santis

78'

N. García← O. Santis

79'

H. Gonzáles← L. Rodas

79'

C. Lima← J. Mitchell

82'

C. Nassi

85'

R. Saravia

Sololá

Comunicaciones

1

13

14

37

3

16

▼

Santis

18

▼

Santis

4

▼

Espino

24

▼

Castañeda

7

▼

21

1

17

4

21

19

▼

Ávila

10

Gutiérrez

24

▼

Rodas

8

Aldana

9

▼

Mitchell

71

Longo

88

Chinchill

Manager: R. Díaz

74'▲C. Solares←▼M. Ávila

79'▲H. Gonzáles←▼L. Rodas

79'▲C. Lima←▼J. Mitchell

Sololá substitutes

7Solares20Gonzáles16Lima6Sandoval22Cabrera59Oliva99Vásquez

Manager: W. Coito

46'▲J. Anangonó←▼A. Lezcano

56'▲R. Saravia←▼K. Espino

78'▲L. García←▼B. Castañeda

78'▲S. Robles←▼D. Santis

78'▲N. García←▼O. Santis

Comunicaciones substitutes

33Anangonó8Saravia26García31Robles77García6Soriano23Barrios