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Sóller vs Son Veri — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Sóller
Sóller
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Son Veri
Son Veri
4/17/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 40Parque Municipal Sóller

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Sóller68%
×Draw18%
Son Veri14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sóller
2.42
Son Veri
1.02

Sóller creates 137% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 20 away

creates per match

Sóller
1.18
Son Veri
0.40

allows per match

Sóller
1.65
Son Veri
3.65

finishing

Sóller+0.00on par
Son Veri+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sóller ↓

Son Veri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Sóller or draw
86%
Sóller or Son Veri
82%
Draw or Son Veri
32%

Winning margin

Sóller wins by 2+
45%
Son Veri wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sóller 1+ goals
91%
Sóller 2+ goals
69%
Sóller 3+ goals
43%
Son Veri 1+ goals
64%
Son Veri 2+ goals
27%
Son Veri 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sóller (draw refunded)
83%
Son Veri (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sóller at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.65 · 80 matches

Son Veri away — creates 0.40, concedes 3.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sóller attack 1.18 + Son Veri defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 2.42

Son Veri attack 0.40 + Sóller defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Sóller scores more
68%
level
18%
Son Veri scores more
14%

Sóller at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Sóller will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sóller vs Son Veri

Sóller beat Son Veri 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on April 17, 2022.

The match was played at Parque Municipal Sóller in Sóller.