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Sóller vs San Rafael — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Sóller
Sóller
CANC
00:00
San Rafael
San Rafael
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 35Estadio Maiol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Sóller38%
×Draw26%
San Rafael36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sóller
1.35
San Rafael
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 47 away

creates per match

Sóller
1.18
San Rafael
0.94

allows per match

Sóller
1.65
San Rafael
1.53

finishing

Sóller+0.00on par
San Rafael+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sóller ↓

San Rafael →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sóller or draw
64%
Sóller or San Rafael
74%
Draw or San Rafael
62%

Winning margin

Sóller wins by 2+
17%
San Rafael wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sóller 1+ goals
74%
Sóller 2+ goals
39%
Sóller 3+ goals
15%
San Rafael 1+ goals
72%
San Rafael 2+ goals
37%
San Rafael 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sóller (draw refunded)
52%
San Rafael (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sóller at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.65 · 80 matches

San Rafael away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sóller attack 1.18 + San Rafael defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.35

San Rafael attack 0.94 + Sóller defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sóller scores more
38%
level
26%
San Rafael scores more
36%

Sóller at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sóller will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sóller face San Rafael (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 returns with Sóller hosting San Rafael. Match starts April 26, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sóller host San Rafael at Estadio Maiol.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.