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Sóller vs Rotlet Molinar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Sóller
Sóller
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rotlet Molinar
Rotlet Molinar
3/27/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 36Parque Municipal Sóller

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Sóller43%
×Draw26%
Rotlet Molinar31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sóller
1.47
Rotlet Molinar
1.21

Sóller creates 21% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 37 away

creates per match

Sóller
1.18
Rotlet Molinar
0.76

allows per match

Sóller
1.65
Rotlet Molinar
1.76

finishing

Sóller+0.00on par
Rotlet Molinar+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sóller ↓

Rotlet Molinar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sóller or draw
69%
Sóller or Rotlet Molinar
74%
Draw or Rotlet Molinar
57%

Winning margin

Sóller wins by 2+
21%
Rotlet Molinar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sóller 1+ goals
77%
Sóller 2+ goals
43%
Sóller 3+ goals
18%
Rotlet Molinar 1+ goals
70%
Rotlet Molinar 2+ goals
34%
Rotlet Molinar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sóller (draw refunded)
58%
Rotlet Molinar (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sóller at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.65 · 80 matches

Rotlet Molinar away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sóller attack 1.18 + Rotlet Molinar defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.47

Rotlet Molinar attack 0.76 + Sóller defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sóller scores more
43%
level
26%
Rotlet Molinar scores more
31%

Sóller at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sóller will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Sóller 0–0 Rotlet Molinar

Sóller and Rotlet Molinar drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Parque Municipal Sóller in Sóller.