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Sóller vs PE Sant Jordi — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Sóller
Sóller
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
PE Sant Jordi
PE Sant Jordi
11/21/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 14Parque Municipal Sóller

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Sóller36%
×Draw25%
PE Sant Jordi39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sóller
1.36
PE Sant Jordi
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 65 away

creates per match

Sóller
1.18
PE Sant Jordi
1.18

allows per match

Sóller
1.65
PE Sant Jordi
1.55

finishing

Sóller+0.00on par
PE Sant Jordi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sóller ↓

PE Sant Jordi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sóller or draw
61%
Sóller or PE Sant Jordi
75%
Draw or PE Sant Jordi
64%

Winning margin

Sóller wins by 2+
16%
PE Sant Jordi wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sóller 1+ goals
74%
Sóller 2+ goals
39%
Sóller 3+ goals
16%
PE Sant Jordi 1+ goals
76%
PE Sant Jordi 2+ goals
41%
PE Sant Jordi 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sóller (draw refunded)
48%
PE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sóller at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.65 · 80 matches

PE Sant Jordi away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sóller attack 1.18 + PE Sant Jordi defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.36

PE Sant Jordi attack 1.18 + Sóller defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sóller scores more
36%
level
25%
PE Sant Jordi scores more
39%

PE Sant Jordi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "PE Sant Jordi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sóller vs PE Sant Jordi

Sóller beat PE Sant Jordi 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on November 21, 2021.

The match was played at Parque Municipal Sóller in Sóller.