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Sóller vs Llosetense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Sóller
Sóller
CANC
00:00
Llosetense
Llosetense
4/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 31Estadio Maiol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Sóller32%
×Draw25%
Llosetense42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sóller
1.26
Llosetense
1.48

Llosetense creates 17% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 116 away

creates per match

Sóller
1.18
Llosetense
1.31

allows per match

Sóller
1.65
Llosetense
1.34

finishing

Sóller+0.00on par
Llosetense+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sóller ↓

Llosetense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sóller or draw
58%
Sóller or Llosetense
75%
Draw or Llosetense
68%

Winning margin

Sóller wins by 2+
14%
Llosetense wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sóller 1+ goals
72%
Sóller 2+ goals
36%
Sóller 3+ goals
13%
Llosetense 1+ goals
77%
Llosetense 2+ goals
43%
Llosetense 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sóller (draw refunded)
43%
Llosetense (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sóller at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.65 · 80 matches

Llosetense away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.34 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sóller attack 1.18 + Llosetense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.26

Llosetense attack 1.31 + Sóller defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sóller scores more
32%
level
25%
Llosetense scores more
42%

Llosetense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Llosetense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sóller face Llosetense (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 returns with Sóller hosting Llosetense. Match starts April 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sóller host Llosetense at Estadio Maiol.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.