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Llosetense vs Sóller — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Llosetense
Llosetense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sóller
Sóller
1/21/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 17Camp Municipal Es Puig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Llosetense54%
×Draw24%
Sóller22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llosetense
1.73
Sóller
1.01

Llosetense creates 71% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 81 away

creates per match

Llosetense
1.41
Sóller
0.88

allows per match

Llosetense
1.14
Sóller
2.05

finishing

Llosetense+0.00on par
Sóller+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llosetense ↓

Sóller →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Llosetense or draw
78%
Llosetense or Sóller
76%
Draw or Sóller
46%

Winning margin

Llosetense wins by 2+
30%
Sóller wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Llosetense 1+ goals
82%
Llosetense 2+ goals
52%
Llosetense 3+ goals
25%
Sóller 1+ goals
64%
Sóller 2+ goals
27%
Sóller 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Llosetense (draw refunded)
71%
Sóller (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llosetense at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.14 · 115 matches

Sóller away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.05 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llosetense attack 1.41 + Sóller defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.73

Sóller attack 0.88 + Llosetense defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Llosetense scores more
54%
level
24%
Sóller scores more
22%

Llosetense at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Llosetense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Llosetense 0–1 Sóller

Sóller beat Llosetense 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on January 21, 2023.

The match was played at Camp Municipal Es Puig in Mallorca.