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Sóller vs Inter Manacor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Sóller
Sóller
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Inter Manacor
Inter Manacor
2/12/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 20Parque Municipal Sóller

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Sóller55%
×Draw23%
Inter Manacor22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sóller
1.88
Inter Manacor
1.12

Sóller creates 68% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 32 away

creates per match

Sóller
1.18
Inter Manacor
0.59

allows per match

Sóller
1.65
Inter Manacor
2.59

finishing

Sóller+0.00on par
Inter Manacor+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sóller ↓

Inter Manacor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sóller or draw
78%
Sóller or Inter Manacor
77%
Draw or Inter Manacor
45%

Winning margin

Sóller wins by 2+
32%
Inter Manacor wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sóller 1+ goals
85%
Sóller 2+ goals
56%
Sóller 3+ goals
29%
Inter Manacor 1+ goals
67%
Inter Manacor 2+ goals
31%
Inter Manacor 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sóller (draw refunded)
71%
Inter Manacor (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sóller at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.65 · 80 matches

Inter Manacor away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sóller attack 1.18 + Inter Manacor defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 1.88

Inter Manacor attack 0.59 + Sóller defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sóller scores more
55%
level
23%
Inter Manacor scores more
22%

Sóller at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sóller will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Sóller 0–1 Inter Manacor

Inter Manacor beat Sóller 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at Parque Municipal Sóller in Sóller.