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Sóller vs Ferriolense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Sóller
Sóller
CANC
14:30
Ferriolense
Ferriolense
5/3/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 36Estadio Maiol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Sóller43%
×Draw25%
Ferriolense33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sóller
1.57
Ferriolense
1.34

Sóller creates 17% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 28 away

creates per match

Sóller
1.18
Ferriolense
1.04

allows per match

Sóller
1.65
Ferriolense
1.96

finishing

Sóller+0.00on par
Ferriolense+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sóller ↓

Ferriolense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sóller or draw
67%
Sóller or Ferriolense
75%
Draw or Ferriolense
57%

Winning margin

Sóller wins by 2+
21%
Ferriolense wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sóller 1+ goals
79%
Sóller 2+ goals
46%
Sóller 3+ goals
21%
Ferriolense 1+ goals
74%
Ferriolense 2+ goals
39%
Ferriolense 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sóller (draw refunded)
57%
Ferriolense (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sóller at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.65 · 80 matches

Ferriolense away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.96 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sóller attack 1.18 + Ferriolense defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.57

Ferriolense attack 1.04 + Sóller defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sóller scores more
43%
level
25%
Ferriolense scores more
33%

Sóller at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sóller will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sóller host Ferriolense

May 3, 2020: Sóller take on Ferriolense in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sóller host Ferriolense at Estadio Maiol.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.