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Sóller vs Campos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Sóller
Sóller
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Campos
Campos
1/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 23Parque Municipal Sóller

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Sóller48%
×Draw24%
Campos28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sóller
1.73
Campos
1.28

Sóller creates 35% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 37 away

creates per match

Sóller
1.18
Campos
0.92

allows per match

Sóller
1.65
Campos
2.27

finishing

Sóller+0.00on par
Campos+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sóller ↓

Campos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sóller or draw
72%
Sóller or Campos
76%
Draw or Campos
52%

Winning margin

Sóller wins by 2+
26%
Campos wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sóller 1+ goals
82%
Sóller 2+ goals
52%
Sóller 3+ goals
25%
Campos 1+ goals
72%
Campos 2+ goals
37%
Campos 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sóller (draw refunded)
63%
Campos (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sóller at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.65 · 80 matches

Campos away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sóller attack 1.18 + Campos defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.73

Campos attack 0.92 + Sóller defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sóller scores more
48%
level
24%
Campos scores more
28%

Sóller at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sóller will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sóller vs Campos

Sóller beat Campos 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on January 9, 2022.

The match was played at Parque Municipal Sóller in Sóller.