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Sollentuna vs Varbergs BoIS FC — Svenska Cupen 2019

Sollentuna
Sollentuna
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Varbergs BoIS FC
Varbergs BoIS FC
2/19/2022Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Grimsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sollentuna16%
×Draw20%
Varbergs BoIS FC64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sollentuna
0.99
Varbergs BoIS FC
2.18

Varbergs BoIS FC creates 120% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sollentuna
0.80
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.76

allows per match

Sollentuna
2.60
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.18

finishing

Sollentuna+0.00on par
Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sollentuna ↓

Varbergs BoIS FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sollentuna or draw
36%
Sollentuna or Varbergs BoIS FC
80%
Draw or Varbergs BoIS FC
84%

Winning margin

Sollentuna wins by 2+
5%
Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Sollentuna 1+ goals
63%
Sollentuna 2+ goals
26%
Sollentuna 3+ goals
8%
Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals
89%
Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals
64%
Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Sollentuna (draw refunded)
20%
Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sollentuna at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

Varbergs BoIS FC away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sollentuna attack 0.80 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.99

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.76 + Sollentuna defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sollentuna scores more
16%
level
20%
Varbergs BoIS FC scores more
64%

Varbergs BoIS FC at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Varbergs BoIS FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sollentuna vs Varbergs BoIS FC

Varbergs BoIS FC beat Sollentuna 1-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at Grimsta IP in Stockholm.