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Sollentuna vs Sirius — Svenska Cupen 2019

Sollentuna
Sollentuna
FT
1 – 8
HT: 1 – 6
Sirius
Sirius
2/22/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Grimsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sollentuna9%
×Draw15%
Sirius76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sollentuna
0.84
Sirius
2.68

Sirius creates 219% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sollentuna
0.80
Sirius
2.76

allows per match

Sollentuna
2.60
Sirius
0.88

finishing

Sollentuna+0.00on par
Sirius+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sollentuna ↓

Sirius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–211%
0–310%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sollentuna or draw
24%
Sollentuna or Sirius
85%
Draw or Sirius
91%

Winning margin

Sollentuna wins by 2+
3%
Sirius wins by 2+
54%

Team goals

Sollentuna 1+ goals
57%
Sollentuna 2+ goals
21%
Sollentuna 3+ goals
5%
Sirius 1+ goals
93%
Sirius 2+ goals
74%
Sirius 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Sollentuna (draw refunded)
11%
Sirius (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sollentuna at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

Sirius away — creates 2.76, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sollentuna attack 0.80 + Sirius defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.84

Sirius attack 2.76 + Sollentuna defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Sollentuna scores more
9%
level
15%
Sirius scores more
76%

Sirius at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sollentuna vs Sirius

Sirius beat Sollentuna 8-1 in Svenska Cupen on February 22, 2020.

The match was played at Grimsta IP in Stockholm.