Sollentuna 0–2 Orebro SK: Result & Stats

Sollentuna

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Orebro SK

8/20/2024

Svenska Cupen · 2nd RoundSollentunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sollentuna15%

×Draw19%

Orebro SK66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SollentunaExpected goals in this matchOrebro SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

2.23

Sollentuna

0.97

Orebro SK

2.23

Orebro SK creates 130% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 20 away

0.80

creates per match

1.85

2.60

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Sollentuna

0.80

Orebro SK

1.85

allows per match

Sollentuna

2.60

Orebro SK

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sollentuna+0.00on par

Orebro SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sollentuna ↓

Orebro SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Sollentuna or draw

34%

Sollentuna or Orebro SK

81%

Draw or Orebro SK

85%

Winning margin

Sollentuna wins by 2+

5%

Orebro SK wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Sollentuna 1+ goals

62%

Sollentuna 2+ goals

25%

Sollentuna 3+ goals

7%

Orebro SK 1+ goals

89%

Orebro SK 2+ goals

65%

Orebro SK 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Sollentuna (draw refunded)

19%

Orebro SK (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sollentuna at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

Orebro SK away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sollentuna attack 0.80 + Orebro SK defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.97

Orebro SK attack 1.85 + Sollentuna defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Sollentuna scores more

15%

level

19%

Orebro SK scores more

66%

Orebro SK at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Orebro SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff