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Sollentuna vs IK Frej — Ettan - Norra 2019

Sollentuna
Sollentuna
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
IK Frej
IK Frej
7/5/2020Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sollentuna50%
×Draw22%
IK Frej28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sollentuna
1.92
IK Frej
1.40

Sollentuna creates 37% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sollentuna
1.70
IK Frej
1.40

allows per match

Sollentuna
1.39
IK Frej
2.13

finishing

Sollentuna+0.00on par
IK Frej+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sollentuna ↓

IK Frej →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sollentuna or draw
72%
Sollentuna or IK Frej
78%
Draw or IK Frej
50%

Winning margin

Sollentuna wins by 2+
28%
IK Frej wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sollentuna 1+ goals
85%
Sollentuna 2+ goals
57%
Sollentuna 3+ goals
30%
IK Frej 1+ goals
75%
IK Frej 2+ goals
41%
IK Frej 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sollentuna (draw refunded)
64%
IK Frej (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sollentuna at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.39 · 112 matches

IK Frej away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sollentuna attack 1.70 + IK Frej defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.92

IK Frej attack 1.40 + Sollentuna defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sollentuna scores more
50%
level
22%
IK Frej scores more
28%

Sollentuna at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sollentuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sollentuna vs IK Frej

Sollentuna beat IK Frej 2-1 in Ettan - Norra on July 5, 2020.