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Sollentuna vs IFK Norrkoping — Svenska Cupen 2019

Sollentuna
Sollentuna
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
IFK Norrkoping
IFK Norrkoping
2/28/2022Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Grimsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sollentuna13%
×Draw16%
IFK Norrkoping71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sollentuna
1.08
IFK Norrkoping
2.73

IFK Norrkoping creates 153% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 20 away

creates per match

Sollentuna
0.80
IFK Norrkoping
2.85

allows per match

Sollentuna
2.60
IFK Norrkoping
1.35

finishing

Sollentuna+0.00on par
IFK Norrkoping+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sollentuna ↓

IFK Norrkoping →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sollentuna or draw
29%
Sollentuna or IFK Norrkoping
84%
Draw or IFK Norrkoping
87%

Winning margin

Sollentuna wins by 2+
4%
IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Sollentuna 1+ goals
66%
Sollentuna 2+ goals
29%
Sollentuna 3+ goals
10%
IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals
93%
IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals
75%
IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Sollentuna (draw refunded)
15%
IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sollentuna at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

IFK Norrkoping away — creates 2.85, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sollentuna attack 0.80 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.08

IFK Norrkoping attack 2.85 + Sollentuna defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Sollentuna scores more
13%
level
16%
IFK Norrkoping scores more
71%

IFK Norrkoping at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "IFK Norrkoping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sollentuna vs IFK Norrkoping

IFK Norrkoping beat Sollentuna 4-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 28, 2022.

The match was played at Grimsta IP in Stockholm.