Sollentuna 0–2 IFK Goteborg: Result & Stats

Sollentuna

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

IFK Goteborg

2/29/2020

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Grimsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sollentuna12%

×Draw16%

IFK Goteborg72%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SollentunaExpected goals in this matchIFK Goteborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

2.54

Sollentuna

0.93

IFK Goteborg

2.54

IFK Goteborg creates 173% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 17 away

0.80

creates per match

2.47

2.60

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Sollentuna

0.80

IFK Goteborg

2.47

allows per match

Sollentuna

2.60

IFK Goteborg

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sollentuna+0.00on par

IFK Goteborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sollentuna ↓

IFK Goteborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–210%

0–39%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Sollentuna or draw

28%

Sollentuna or IFK Goteborg

84%

Draw or IFK Goteborg

88%

Winning margin

Sollentuna wins by 2+

4%

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+

50%

Team goals

Sollentuna 1+ goals

61%

Sollentuna 2+ goals

24%

Sollentuna 3+ goals

7%

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals

92%

IFK Goteborg 2+ goals

72%

IFK Goteborg 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Sollentuna (draw refunded)

14%

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sollentuna at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

IFK Goteborg away — creates 2.47, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sollentuna attack 0.80 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.93

IFK Goteborg attack 2.47 + Sollentuna defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Sollentuna scores more

12%

level

16%

IFK Goteborg scores more

72%

IFK Goteborg at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff