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Sollentuna vs Gefle IF — Ettan - Norra 2019

Sollentuna
Sollentuna
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gefle IF
Gefle IF
4/26/2025Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 5Sollentunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Sollentuna42%
×Draw24%
Gefle IF33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sollentuna
1.59
Gefle IF
1.38

Sollentuna creates 15% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 82 away

creates per match

Sollentuna
1.70
Gefle IF
1.37

allows per match

Sollentuna
1.39
Gefle IF
1.49

finishing

Sollentuna+0.00on par
Gefle IF+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sollentuna ↓

Gefle IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sollentuna or draw
67%
Sollentuna or Gefle IF
76%
Draw or Gefle IF
58%

Winning margin

Sollentuna wins by 2+
21%
Gefle IF wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sollentuna 1+ goals
80%
Sollentuna 2+ goals
47%
Sollentuna 3+ goals
21%
Gefle IF 1+ goals
75%
Gefle IF 2+ goals
40%
Gefle IF 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sollentuna (draw refunded)
56%
Gefle IF (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sollentuna at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.39 · 112 matches

Gefle IF away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.49 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sollentuna attack 1.70 + Gefle IF defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.59

Gefle IF attack 1.37 + Sollentuna defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sollentuna scores more
42%
level
24%
Gefle IF scores more
33%

Sollentuna at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sollentuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sollentuna vs Gefle IF

Gefle IF beat Sollentuna 1-0 in Ettan - Norra on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Sollentunavallen in Sollentuna.