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Sollentuna vs Djurgardens IF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Sollentuna
Sollentuna
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
11/19/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundSollentunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sollentuna8%
×Draw13%
Djurgardens IF80%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sollentuna
0.81
Djurgardens IF
2.92

Djurgardens IF creates 260% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 16 away

creates per match

Sollentuna
0.80
Djurgardens IF
3.25

allows per match

Sollentuna
2.60
Djurgardens IF
0.81

finishing

Sollentuna+0.00on par
Djurgardens IF+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sollentuna ↓

Djurgardens IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–211%
0–310%
0–47%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Sollentuna or draw
20%
Sollentuna or Djurgardens IF
87%
Draw or Djurgardens IF
92%

Winning margin

Sollentuna wins by 2+
2%
Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
60%

Team goals

Sollentuna 1+ goals
56%
Sollentuna 2+ goals
19%
Sollentuna 3+ goals
5%
Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
94%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
78%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Sollentuna (draw refunded)
9%
Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sollentuna at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

Djurgardens IF away — creates 3.25, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sollentuna attack 0.80 + Djurgardens IF defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.81

Djurgardens IF attack 3.25 + Sollentuna defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Sollentuna scores more
8%
level
13%
Djurgardens IF scores more
80%

Djurgardens IF at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Sollentuna 0–4 Djurgardens IF

Djurgardens IF beat Sollentuna 4-0 in Svenska Cupen on November 19, 2020.

The match was played at Sollentunavallen in Sollentuna.