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Sollentuna vs Degerfors IF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Sollentuna
Sollentuna
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
8/21/2019Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundSollentunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sollentuna16%
×Draw17%
Degerfors IF66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sollentuna
1.23
Degerfors IF
2.59

Degerfors IF creates 111% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sollentuna
0.80
Degerfors IF
2.59

allows per match

Sollentuna
2.60
Degerfors IF
1.65

finishing

Sollentuna+0.00on par
Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sollentuna ↓

Degerfors IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sollentuna or draw
34%
Sollentuna or Degerfors IF
83%
Draw or Degerfors IF
84%

Winning margin

Sollentuna wins by 2+
6%
Degerfors IF wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Sollentuna 1+ goals
71%
Sollentuna 2+ goals
35%
Sollentuna 3+ goals
13%
Degerfors IF 1+ goals
92%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
73%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Sollentuna (draw refunded)
20%
Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sollentuna at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 2.59, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sollentuna attack 0.80 + Degerfors IF defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.23

Degerfors IF attack 2.59 + Sollentuna defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Sollentuna scores more
16%
level
17%
Degerfors IF scores more
66%

Degerfors IF at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Sollentuna 4–3 Degerfors IF

Sollentuna beat Degerfors IF 4-3 in Svenska Cupen on August 21, 2019.

The match was played at Sollentunavallen in Sollentuna.