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Söll vs Natters — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Söll
Söll
FT
1 – 5
Natters
Natters
10/31/2020Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 14Kunstrasen Salvenarena-Söll

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Söll29%
×Draw22%
Natters49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Söll
1.41
Natters
1.91

Natters creates 35% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 44 away

creates per match

Söll
0.64
Natters
1.55

allows per match

Söll
2.27
Natters
2.18

finishing

Söll+0.00on par
Natters+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Söll ↓

Natters →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Söll or draw
51%
Söll or Natters
78%
Draw or Natters
71%

Winning margin

Söll wins by 2+
13%
Natters wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Söll 1+ goals
76%
Söll 2+ goals
41%
Söll 3+ goals
17%
Natters 1+ goals
85%
Natters 2+ goals
57%
Natters 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Söll (draw refunded)
37%
Natters (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Söll at home — creates 0.64, concedes 2.27 · 11 matches

Natters away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.18 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Söll attack 0.64 + Natters defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.41

Natters attack 1.55 + Söll defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Söll scores more
29%
level
22%
Natters scores more
49%

Natters at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Natters will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Tirol: Söll 1–5 Natters

Natters beat Söll 5-1 in Landesliga - Tirol on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Kunstrasen Salvenarena-Söll in Söll.