Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Söll vs Mils — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Söll
Söll
PST
22:00
Mils
Mils
6/12/2020Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 29Kunstrasen Salvenarena-Söll

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Söll30%
×Draw21%
Mils49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Söll
1.59
Mils
2.09

Mils creates 31% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 70 away

creates per match

Söll
0.64
Mils
1.91

allows per match

Söll
2.27
Mils
2.54

finishing

Söll+0.00on par
Mils+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Söll ↓

Mils →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Söll or draw
51%
Söll or Mils
79%
Draw or Mils
70%

Winning margin

Söll wins by 2+
14%
Mils wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Söll 1+ goals
80%
Söll 2+ goals
47%
Söll 3+ goals
21%
Mils 1+ goals
88%
Mils 2+ goals
62%
Mils 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Söll (draw refunded)
38%
Mils (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Söll at home — creates 0.64, concedes 2.27 · 11 matches

Mils away — creates 1.91, concedes 2.54 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Söll attack 0.64 + Mils defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.59

Mils attack 1.91 + Söll defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Söll scores more
30%
level
21%
Mils scores more
49%

Mils at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Söll host Mils

June 12, 2020: Söll take on Mils in Landesliga - Tirol. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Söll host Mils at Kunstrasen Salvenarena-Söll.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.