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Mils vs Söll — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Mils
Mils
FT
6 – 3
Söll
Söll
8/8/2020Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 1Sportplatz Mils

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mils70%
×Draw15%
Söll15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mils
3.22
Söll
1.51

Mils creates 113% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 17 away

creates per match

Mils
2.44
Söll
0.94

allows per match

Mils
2.09
Söll
4.00

finishing

Mils+0.00on par
Söll+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mils ↓

Söll →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Mils or draw
85%
Mils or Söll
85%
Draw or Söll
30%

Winning margin

Mils wins by 2+
51%
Söll wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mils 1+ goals
96%
Mils 2+ goals
82%
Mils 3+ goals
61%
Söll 1+ goals
78%
Söll 2+ goals
44%
Söll 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Mils (draw refunded)
82%
Söll (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mils at home — creates 2.44, concedes 2.09 · 70 matches

Söll away — creates 0.94, concedes 4.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mils attack 2.44 + Söll defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.22

Söll attack 0.94 + Mils defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Mils scores more
70%
level
15%
Söll scores more
15%

Mils at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Mils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mils 6 – 3 Söll

Mils beat Söll 6-3 in Landesliga - Tirol on August 8, 2020.

The match was played at Sportplatz Mils in Mils.