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Söll vs Kundl — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Söll
Söll
CANC
23:00
Kundl
Kundl
3/12/2021Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 5Kunstrasen Salvenarena-Söll

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Söll26%
×Draw23%
Kundl51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Söll
1.26
Kundl
1.85

Kundl creates 47% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 70 away

creates per match

Söll
0.64
Kundl
1.44

allows per match

Söll
2.27
Kundl
1.87

finishing

Söll+0.00on par
Kundl+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Söll ↓

Kundl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Söll or draw
49%
Söll or Kundl
77%
Draw or Kundl
74%

Winning margin

Söll wins by 2+
11%
Kundl wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Söll 1+ goals
72%
Söll 2+ goals
36%
Söll 3+ goals
13%
Kundl 1+ goals
84%
Kundl 2+ goals
55%
Kundl 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Söll (draw refunded)
34%
Kundl (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Söll at home — creates 0.64, concedes 2.27 · 11 matches

Kundl away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.87 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Söll attack 0.64 + Kundl defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.26

Kundl attack 1.44 + Söll defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Söll scores more
26%
level
23%
Kundl scores more
51%

Kundl at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kundl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Söll host Kundl

March 12, 2021: Söll take on Kundl in Landesliga - Tirol. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Söll host Kundl at Kunstrasen Salvenarena-Söll.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.