Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Söll vs Fügen — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Söll
Söll
CANC
22:00
Fügen
Fügen
5/8/2020Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 23Kunstrasen Salvenarena-Söll

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Söll22%
×Draw22%
Fügen56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Söll
1.20
Fügen
2.02

Fügen creates 68% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 55 away

creates per match

Söll
0.64
Fügen
1.78

allows per match

Söll
2.27
Fügen
1.76

finishing

Söll+0.00on par
Fügen+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Söll ↓

Fügen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Söll or draw
44%
Söll or Fügen
78%
Draw or Fügen
78%

Winning margin

Söll wins by 2+
9%
Fügen wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Söll 1+ goals
70%
Söll 2+ goals
34%
Söll 3+ goals
12%
Fügen 1+ goals
87%
Fügen 2+ goals
60%
Fügen 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Söll (draw refunded)
28%
Fügen (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Söll at home — creates 0.64, concedes 2.27 · 11 matches

Fügen away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.76 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Söll attack 0.64 + Fügen defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.20

Fügen attack 1.78 + Söll defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Söll scores more
22%
level
22%
Fügen scores more
56%

Fügen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Fügen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Söll host Fügen

May 8, 2020: Söll take on Fügen in Landesliga - Tirol. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Söll host Fügen at Kunstrasen Salvenarena-Söll.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.