Solin 1–2 Zrinski Jurjevac: Result & Stats

Solin

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Zrinski Jurjevac

F. Čuić 49'

D. Dogan 72'

P. Stanić 59'

11/10/2023

First NL · Round 14Stadion Hrvatski vitezovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Solin48%

×Draw26%

Zrinski Jurjevac26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SolinExpected goals in this matchZrinski Jurjevac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.01

Solin

1.47

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.01

Solin creates 46% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 34 away

1.41

creates per match

0.91

1.11

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Solin

1.41

Zrinski Jurjevac

0.91

allows per match

Solin

1.11

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Solin+0.00on par

Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Solin ↓

Zrinski Jurjevac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Solin or draw

74%

Solin or Zrinski Jurjevac

74%

Draw or Zrinski Jurjevac

52%

Winning margin

Solin wins by 2+

24%

Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Solin 1+ goals

77%

Solin 2+ goals

43%

Solin 3+ goals

18%

Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals

64%

Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals

27%

Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Solin (draw refunded)

65%

Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Solin at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.11 · 87 matches

Zrinski Jurjevac away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Solin attack 1.41 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.47

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 0.91 + Solin defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Solin scores more

48%

level

26%

Zrinski Jurjevac scores more

26%

Solin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Solin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

F. Cuic

20'

L. Dumancic

46'

L. Kuvačić← Š. Hrgović

46'

J. Vučković← R. Brajković

49'

49'

49'

59'

60'

M. Tadic

64'

L. Kuvacic

72'

D. Dogan

81'

M. Ouamri← I. Ćubelić

84'

I. Svržnjak← A. Pekarić

88'

G. Eskinja← D. Dogan

Solin

Zrinski

12

Stanić

6

⚽

Stanić

2

Unušić

16

▼

5

8

9

17

▼

Korov

18

Tadić

30

⚽

▼

Dogan

10

▼

1

7

3

8

6

16

▼

Hrgović

10

Kaćunko

21

▼

Ćubelić

2

Karabatić

20

▼

Brajković

19

⚽

Čuić

Manager: G. Granić

46'▲L. Kuvačić←▼Š. Hrgović

46'▲J. Vučković←▼R. Brajković

81'▲M. Ouamri←▼I. Ćubelić

Solin substitutes

14Kuvačić15Vučković9Ouamri12Barbić13Ožegović18Borovičkić22Đolonga17Klarić5Majdov

49'▲A. Mujagić←▼P. Pejić

49'▲D. Jelavić←▼P. Korov

84'▲I. Svržnjak←▼A. Pekarić

88'▲G. Eskinja←▼D. Dogan

Zrinski Jurjevac substitutes

21Mujagić23Jelavić14Svržnjak13Eskinja1Čović7Salapić11Škrijelj19Jajalo20Posinković