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Solin vs Sibenik — First NL 2018

Solin
Solin
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Sibenik
Sibenik
8/19/2023First NLFirst NL · Round 2Stadion Hrvatski vitezovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Solin34%
×Draw28%
Sibenik37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Solin
1.13
Sibenik
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 40 away

creates per match

Solin
1.41
Sibenik
1.27

allows per match

Solin
1.11
Sibenik
0.85

finishing

Solin+0.00on par
Sibenik+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Solin ↓

Sibenik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Solin or draw
63%
Solin or Sibenik
72%
Draw or Sibenik
66%

Winning margin

Solin wins by 2+
14%
Sibenik wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Solin 1+ goals
68%
Solin 2+ goals
31%
Solin 3+ goals
11%
Sibenik 1+ goals
70%
Sibenik 2+ goals
33%
Sibenik 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Solin (draw refunded)
48%
Sibenik (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Solin at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.11 · 87 matches

Sibenik away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.85 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Solin attack 1.41 + Sibenik defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.13

Sibenik attack 1.27 + Solin defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Solin scores more
34%
level
28%
Sibenik scores more
37%

Sibenik at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sibenik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Solin 2 – 3 Sibenik

Sibenik beat Solin 3-2 in First NL on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Hrvatski vitezovi in Dugopolje.