Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Solin vs Sesvete — First NL 2018

Solin
Solin
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sesvete
Sesvete
9/16/2023First NLFirst NL · Round 6Stadion Hrvatski vitezovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Solin41%
×Draw27%
Sesvete31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Solin
1.32
Sesvete
1.11

Solin creates 19% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 103 away

creates per match

Solin
1.41
Sesvete
1.11

allows per match

Solin
1.11
Sesvete
1.24

finishing

Solin+0.00on par
Sesvete+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Solin ↓

Sesvete →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Solin or draw
69%
Solin or Sesvete
73%
Draw or Sesvete
59%

Winning margin

Solin wins by 2+
19%
Sesvete wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Solin 1+ goals
73%
Solin 2+ goals
38%
Solin 3+ goals
15%
Sesvete 1+ goals
67%
Sesvete 2+ goals
30%
Sesvete 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Solin (draw refunded)
57%
Sesvete (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Solin at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.11 · 87 matches

Sesvete away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.24 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Solin attack 1.41 + Sesvete defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.32

Sesvete attack 1.11 + Solin defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Solin scores more
41%
level
27%
Sesvete scores more
31%

Solin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Solin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First NL: Solin 0–1 Sesvete

Sesvete beat Solin 1-0 in First NL on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Hrvatski vitezovi in Dugopolje.