Solin 6–0 Jadran Poreč: Result & Stats | Second NL

Solin

FT

6 – 0

HT: 5 – 0

Jadran Poreč

M. Domancic 80'

I. Matyazh 42', 36', 28' (pen), 2'

I. Issah 41'

5/24/2025

Second NL · Round 29Stadion pokraj Jadra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Solin68%

×Draw18%

Jadran Poreč14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SolinExpected goals in this matchJadran Poreč

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

0.98

Solin

2.40

Jadran Poreč

0.98

Solin creates 145% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

2.07

creates per match

1.00

0.97

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

Solin

2.07

Jadran Poreč

1.00

allows per match

Solin

0.97

Jadran Poreč

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Solin+0.00on par

Jadran Poreč+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Solin ↓

Jadran Poreč →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Solin or draw

86%

Solin or Jadran Poreč

82%

Draw or Jadran Poreč

32%

Winning margin

Solin wins by 2+

46%

Jadran Poreč wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Solin 1+ goals

91%

Solin 2+ goals

69%

Solin 3+ goals

42%

Jadran Poreč 1+ goals

62%

Jadran Poreč 2+ goals

26%

Jadran Poreč 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Solin (draw refunded)

83%

Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Solin at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

Jadran Poreč away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Solin attack 2.07 + Jadran Poreč defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.40

Jadran Poreč attack 1.00 + Solin defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Solin scores more

68%

level

18%

Jadran Poreč scores more

14%

Solin at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Solin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

I. Matyazh

28'

I. MatyazhPenalty

36'

I. Matyazh

41'

I. Issah

42'

I. Matyazh

80'

M. Domancic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff