Solin 0–2 Dubrava Zagreb: Result & Stats | First NL

Solin

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Dubrava Zagreb

11/12/2022

First NL · Round 14Stadion Hrvatski vitezovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Solin45%

×Draw27%

Dubrava Zagreb28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SolinExpected goals in this matchDubrava Zagreb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.04

Solin

1.39

Dubrava Zagreb

1.04

Solin creates 34% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 106 away

1.41

creates per match

0.98

1.11

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Solin

1.41

Dubrava Zagreb

0.98

allows per match

Solin

1.11

Dubrava Zagreb

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Solin+0.00on par

Dubrava Zagreb+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Solin ↓

Dubrava Zagreb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Solin or draw

72%

Solin or Dubrava Zagreb

73%

Draw or Dubrava Zagreb

55%

Winning margin

Solin wins by 2+

21%

Dubrava Zagreb wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Solin 1+ goals

75%

Solin 2+ goals

40%

Solin 3+ goals

16%

Dubrava Zagreb 1+ goals

65%

Dubrava Zagreb 2+ goals

28%

Dubrava Zagreb 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Solin (draw refunded)

61%

Dubrava Zagreb (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Solin at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.11 · 87 matches

Dubrava Zagreb away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.36 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Solin attack 1.41 + Dubrava Zagreb defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.39

Dubrava Zagreb attack 0.98 + Solin defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Solin scores more

45%

level

27%

Dubrava Zagreb scores more

28%

Solin at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Solin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff