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Solihull Moors W vs Loughborough Lightning — FA Women's Cup 2019

Solihull Moors W
Solihull Moors W
FT
0 – 3
Loughborough Lightning
Loughborough Lightning
11/14/2021FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 1st RoundSportNation.bet Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Solihull Moors W27%
×Draw20%
Loughborough Lightning53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Solihull Moors W
1.60
Loughborough Lightning
2.31

Loughborough Lightning creates 44% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Solihull Moors W
1.50
Loughborough Lightning
1.86

allows per match

Solihull Moors W
2.75
Loughborough Lightning
1.71

finishing

Solihull Moors W+0.00on par
Loughborough Lightning+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Solihull Moors W ↓

Loughborough Lightning →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Solihull Moors W or draw
47%
Solihull Moors W or Loughborough Lightning
80%
Draw or Loughborough Lightning
73%

Winning margin

Solihull Moors W wins by 2+
12%
Loughborough Lightning wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Solihull Moors W 1+ goals
80%
Solihull Moors W 2+ goals
47%
Solihull Moors W 3+ goals
22%
Loughborough Lightning 1+ goals
90%
Loughborough Lightning 2+ goals
67%
Loughborough Lightning 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Solihull Moors W (draw refunded)
33%
Loughborough Lightning (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Solihull Moors W at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Loughborough Lightning away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Solihull Moors W attack 1.50 + Loughborough Lightning defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.60

Loughborough Lightning attack 1.86 + Solihull Moors W defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Solihull Moors W scores more
27%
level
20%
Loughborough Lightning scores more
53%

Loughborough Lightning at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Loughborough Lightning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Solihull Moors W 0–3 Loughborough Lightning

Loughborough Lightning beat Solihull Moors W 3-0 in FA Women's Cup on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at SportNation.bet Stadium in Solihull, West Midlands.