Soleil 1–2 Dynamo Abomey: Result & Stats

Soleil

FT

1 – 2

Dynamo Abomey

11/5/2023

Championnat National · Round 4City Covè Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Soleil35%

×Draw29%

Dynamo Abomey36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SoleilExpected goals in this matchDynamo Abomey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.14

Soleil

1.13

Dynamo Abomey

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 108 away

1.13

creates per match

0.91

1.37

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Soleil

1.13

Dynamo Abomey

0.91

allows per match

Soleil

1.37

Dynamo Abomey

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Soleil+0.00on par

Dynamo Abomey+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Soleil ↓

Dynamo Abomey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Soleil or draw

64%

Soleil or Dynamo Abomey

71%

Draw or Dynamo Abomey

65%

Winning margin

Soleil wins by 2+

14%

Dynamo Abomey wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Soleil 1+ goals

68%

Soleil 2+ goals

31%

Soleil 3+ goals

11%

Dynamo Abomey 1+ goals

68%

Dynamo Abomey 2+ goals

32%

Dynamo Abomey 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Soleil (draw refunded)

50%

Dynamo Abomey (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Soleil at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.37 · 60 matches

Dynamo Abomey away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.14 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Soleil attack 1.13 + Dynamo Abomey defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Dynamo Abomey attack 0.91 + Soleil defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Soleil scores more

35%

level

29%

Dynamo Abomey scores more

36%

Dynamo Abomey at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Dynamo Abomey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff