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Soleil vs Dynamique Djougou — Championnat National 2019

Soleil
Soleil
FT
2 – 2
Dynamique Djougou
Dynamique Djougou
3/9/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Relegation Round - 2City Covè Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Soleil44%
×Draw28%
Dynamique Djougou28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Soleil
1.31
Dynamique Djougou
0.97

Soleil creates 35% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 73 away

creates per match

Soleil
1.13
Dynamique Djougou
0.56

allows per match

Soleil
1.37
Dynamique Djougou
1.49

finishing

Soleil+0.00on par
Dynamique Djougou+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Soleil ↓

Dynamique Djougou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Soleil or draw
72%
Soleil or Dynamique Djougou
72%
Draw or Dynamique Djougou
56%

Winning margin

Soleil wins by 2+
20%
Dynamique Djougou wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Soleil 1+ goals
73%
Soleil 2+ goals
38%
Soleil 3+ goals
14%
Dynamique Djougou 1+ goals
62%
Dynamique Djougou 2+ goals
25%
Dynamique Djougou 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Soleil (draw refunded)
62%
Dynamique Djougou (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Soleil at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.37 · 60 matches

Dynamique Djougou away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.49 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Soleil attack 1.13 + Dynamique Djougou defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.31

Dynamique Djougou attack 0.56 + Soleil defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Soleil scores more
44%
level
28%
Dynamique Djougou scores more
28%

Soleil at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Soleil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Soleil 2–2 Dynamique Djougou

Soleil and Dynamique Djougou drew 2-2 in Championnat National on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at City Covè Stadium in Covè.